By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, March 25 (Reuters) – Stocks rose and oil fell on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire in its war on Iran and had sent a 15-point plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a breakthrough that could help restore oil exports from the Gulf.
S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% through the Asia day, while European futures lifted 1.2% and FTSE futures rose 0.7% – all fairly modest moves reflecting investor caution.
Brent crude futures slid 5% to $99 a barrel.
Japanese stocks jumped 3%, while markets in Australia and South Korea rose 2%, recouping recent losses but not weeks of falls since war broke out.
“The market is trading the headlines at the moment,” said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Melbourne.
“So there’s a positive tone. The difficulty is now…there are still unknowns about where this actually goes from here and whether there’s anything material in terms of a ceasefire.”
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was making progress in negotiating an end to the war, including winning an important concession from Tehran.
One source confirmed to Reuters that Washington had sent Iran a 15-point settlement proposal and Israel’s Channel 12, quoting sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
Tehran has denied that direct talks have taken place and on Wednesday the official IRNA news agency quoted an armed forces spokesperson as saying the U.S. is “negotiating with itself”.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Lack of clarity over whether or when oil exports out of the Persian Gulf can resume, as well as signs there’s already economic harm being done by spiking oil prices, have tempered markets’ reaction so far to Trump’s conciliatory moves.
Brent crude prices remain up 35% since the war began and near the $100 a barrel level. The dollar is only marginally lower this week, and steadied in Asia trade on Wednesday buying 158.9 yen and trading at $1.1594 per euro. [FRX/]
Interest rate markets have also stuck with expectations of fairly extreme responses from central bankers, pricing a series of hikes in Europe, Britain, Japan and Australia in the coming months to tame inflation, and no further U.S. rate cuts.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dropped around 4.4 basis points to 4.35% in Tokyo trade and two-year yields fell slightly further to 3.87%.
“For now, it feels like a market that is reacting rather than anticipating, and until there is clearer alignment from both sides, I would expect price action to remain fragile,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.
“People are reluctant to chase moves that are entirely headline-driven and can reverse quickly.”
War worries have also obscured growing concerns in credit markets where there are signs of stress in private credit and Ares Management on Tuesday became the latest asset manager to cap withdrawals at a private debt fund, spooking investors.
Shares of Ares, which managed roughly $623 billion in assets at the end of 2025, fell 1% on Tuesday. They are down 36% so far this year.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sam Holmes)
Comments