By Juana Casas
SANTIAGO, July 30 (Reuters) – Latin America is expected to experience a severe El Niño weather phenomenon from October to December, which is likely to worsen agricultural supply shocks caused by conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a senior United Nations official told Reuters.
Maximo Torero, chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization, warned the region faces a “double blow” of extreme weather stress and reduced supplies of fertilizers and hybrid seeds. Those have been affected by the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran war.
“There is a high probability that this will be an intense El Niño — like the one in 2015,” Torero said.
The impact is expected to be uneven across Latin America. In Peru, the northern coast faces flooding while the highlands suffer from water scarcity — a pattern likely to be repeated between northern and southern Chile.
Torero said governments must design policies to address both extremes simultaneously.
“LET’S NOT WASTE TIME”
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center recently estimated an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño, potentially ranking among the most severe since 1950.
Torero urged investments in preparedness, saying every dollar dedicated here yields a $7 return, compared to just $3 for reactive measures.
Torero recommended focusing on infrastructure to prevent transport disruptions, developing resilient seeds and accelerating harvests to mitigate damage from storms.
The FAO identified the Central American Dry Corridor, a tropical forest region on the Pacific Coast, as a very high-risk zone during El Niño.
(Reporting by Juana Casas; Editing by Natalia Siniawski and Cynthia Osterman)
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