By Richard Cowan
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) – Voters will go to the polls on Tuesday in Arizona to choose Republican and Democratic nominees for the U.S. Congress and governor, with races that will set the tone for November’s midterm elections in a state known for its competitive elections and politically independent streak.
Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in Arizona, but the large number of independents makes for a state that is considered closely divided.
Both parties have had combative primary competitions in one of the most closely watched races in the country: Arizona’s 1st congressional district.
With Republican Representative David Schweikert leaving the House of Representatives at year’s end as he attempts to become Arizona’s next governor, Democrats have targeted this open Phoenix metropolitan district seat as a top priority in their quest to win majority control of the House from Republicans.
Republicans currently hold 218 House seats to Democrats’ 212 seats, not counting one independent who caucuses with Republicans and four vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win majority control of the House starting in 2027.
Former professional football player Jay Feely, who is backed by President Donald Trump, has two challengers for the first district Republican nomination. Joseph Chaplik, a former member of the state legislature, aligned himself with the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus.
John Trobough, a tech firm executive, identifies as a “Reagan conservative,” distancing himself somewhat from the most conservative wing of the party.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FEATURES REMATCH
On the Democratic side, that party’s establishment has rallied behind moderate Marlene Galan-Woods, a former Republican and ex-broadcast journalist whose supporters range from U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
She and her surrogates have focused on defeating Amish Shah, an emergency room doctor who narrowly defeated Galan-Woods for the party nomination in 2024, only to be beaten that November by Schweikert, 51.9% to 48.1%.
Political analysts see the November race as a toss-up in a district that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won in 2020. Trump won the district in 2024.
A second U.S. House seat is also considered a November toss-up in the 6th congressional district currently held by Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani.
Ciscomani has no primary challenger, and neither does Democratic primary candidate JoAnna Mendoza.
SPOTLIGHT ON GUBERNATORIAL RACE
In what could be a tight statewide race, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is seeking re-election in November against whoever Republicans nominate on Tuesday.
Besides Schweikert, far-right U.S. Representative Andy Biggs is leading in the four-person race to face Hobbs, who has no primary opponent.
Cook Political Report has adjusted its forecast from a toss-up to “lean Democratic,” noting that Biggs is a 2020 presidential election denier and a “potentially polarizing” figure in this swing state.
That is a narrative that Democrats hope also carries them to victory in the race for the governorship, as well as three of the nine U.S. House races this autumn, including the 2nd-district seat currently held by Republican Representative Eli Crane.
(Reporting by Richard Cowan in Washington; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Matthew Lewis)
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