By Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee
TAIPEI, March 25 (Reuters) – Taiwan fears China will exploit the distraction of the United States by its war in the Middle East, with state media citing examples from the conflict to cast doubt on the efficiency of U.S. weapons the island would use to repel any invasion.
One of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints, democratically governed Taiwan faces growing military pressure from China, which views the island as its own territory, around which Beijing held its latest war games in December.
Taiwan officials say Beijing’s resumption, since March 14 and 15, of large-scale air force incursions near Taiwan after an unusual drop-off, show China wants to take advantage of U.S. forces redeploying from East Asia to bolster the war effort.
“This is a moment for China to exercise influence,” said a senior Taiwan security official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
“What China is trying to create is a sense that when the U.S. shifts forces away and Indo-Pacific strength is redirected to the Middle East, tension and instability should be manufactured.”
Neither China’s Taiwan Affairs Office nor its defence ministry responded to Reuters requests for comment.
Taiwan’s defence ministry cited comments this month by Defence Minister Wellington Koo that China’s “intention to annex us by force has always existed”.
BALANCED US MILITARY DEPLOYMENT ACROSS REGIONS
Deployment of U.S. military resources across regions has always been balanced, so the move was unlikely to create a gap for China to attack, the Taiwan source added.
In Washington, a State Department spokesperson told Reuters the U.S. military’s capacity to handle simultaneous global threats remains “formidable”, adding that the U.S. is committed to preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
A long war would deplete U.S. stocks of weapons, divert attention from the Asia-Pacific and fuel domestic anti-war sentiment, said Chang Kuo-cheng, a professor of international relations at Taipei Medical University.
“All these factors may lead Xi Jinping to believe that, in exerting greater pressure on Taiwan or even using force against Taiwan, his position would be stronger than before this war began.”
The longer the war lasts, the more lessons it offers for China on U.S. military thinking and response scenarios for a possible Chinese move on Taiwan, he added.
U.S. allies in Asia have also warned the Iran war could sap defences against China.
‘COGNITIVE WARFARE’
Taipei is wary of Beijing using the Middle East war in its “cognitive warfare” propaganda against Taiwan, such as AI-generated online videos after the conflict that claimed it faced a “devastating” energy supply crisis, the government said this month in an internal memo reviewed by Reuters.
“They want people to think that one day, when Taiwan is again encircled by the Chinese military, the public will lose confidence in energy issues,” another Taiwan security official said.
On Wednesday, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office touted improved infrastructure as a benefit of “reunification”, with an offer of a “rapid transit link” including a Beijing-Taipei expressway.
That followed a Chinese offer of energy security if the island agreed to be ruled by Beijing, dismissed last week by Deputy Economy Minister Ho Chin-tsang as more cognitive warfare.
Chinese state media view the Iran war as having implications for future conflict with Taiwan, its weapons mainly supplied by the United States, despite a lack of formal diplomatic ties.
Taiwan’s radar stations could share the fate of similar U.S. equipment reported destroyed in Iranian attacks, said Liu Kuangyu, a researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies of government think-tank the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Taiwan’s radars would be “instantly reduced to scrap metal” in “saturation attacks” by the People’s Liberation Army, Liu said in remarks last week to the Riyue Tantian website run by the China Media Group parent of state television.
But the United States has not confirmed such attacks by Iran.
The military channel of China’s state broadcaster has played up the supposed poor performance of some U.S. weaponry, citing a fire on the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier as an example.
“From the outbreak of the war up to now, the real combat performance of U.S. weapons and equipment has differed markedly from the image widely perceived by the outside world,” it said on its WeChat account on March 16.
‘GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS’
The war affords China a great opportunity to observe U.S. military operations, especially high-end military assets such as the F-35 fighter jet, said Todd Harrison, a defence analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
“They’re also going to be collecting (data) on how well our air and missile defence systems work and how we employ them,” Harrison said.
Taiwan, which has proposed extra defence spending of $40 billion, is also keenly watching the prospects for a summit of U.S. and Chinese leaders in Beijing, now postponed from early April.
The government expected the talks would cover Taiwan, but had no way to influence them, said Shen Yu-chung, a deputy minister at Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, responsible for policy towards China.
“However, we must … present a clear and consistent message to the outside world, that we are determined to rely on our own national defence to safeguard our sovereignty,” he said.
(Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee; Additional reporting by Beijing newsroom and Michael Martina in Washington; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
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