By Joseph Ax
March 4 (Reuters) – U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will square off in a high-stakes runoff for the state’s Republican nomination for Senate, pitting a longtime member of the party’s establishment against an insurgent hardliner as the midterm elections kicked off on Tuesday.
Neither man was able to exceed the 50% threshold necessary to win outright in Tuesday’s voting, ensuring that the most expensive Senate primary in history will extend another 12 weeks into May.
The scandal-scarred Paxton, a firebrand ally of President Donald Trump, has some Republican leaders worried his nomination could endanger a typically safe seat.
The victor will face off against Democratic nominee James Talarico, a state lawmaker, who narrowly beat out U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett in another bruising contest that similarly underscored the divides in the Democratic Party.
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who has made headlines for his regular use of scripture on the campaign trail, has explicitly appealed to independents and moderates in a state that has long been dominated by Republicans.
Crockett, whose fiery denunciations of President Donald Trump have built her a national profile, had argued her candidacy would excite less frequent Democratic voters.
SEVEN-MONTH PRIMARY SEASON
In North Carolina, a marquee Senate matchup was set when former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley won their party’s nominations for an open seat in the battleground state. The race is a must-win for Democrats’ slim hopes of gaining a Senate majority.
Tuesday’s contests kick off a seven-month primary season in all 50 states ahead of November’s general election, which will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats will be at stake.
The day’s elections, which included contests in Arkansas as well, offered an early indication of how each party was responding to the chaos of Trump’s presidency.
With votes still being counted in Texas as of midnight, Democrats had cast about 1.6 million ballots compared with about 1.5 million for Republicans, in a state that Trump carried in 2024 by 1.5 million votes. The turnout figures suggest Democratic enthusiasm remains high, following the party’s strong performances in dozens of state-level elections since Trump took office a year ago.
The elections took place days after the U.S. attacked Iran, a move some White House aides privately worry could pose political risks for Trump and Republicans at a time when voters have made it clear they are more concerned with domestic issues, including affordability and immigration.
Trump’s approval ratings have fallen, and the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections. A Democratic House or Senate could block much of Trump’s legislative agenda and open damaging investigations into his administration.
November’s battle for the U.S. House of Representatives will be particularly hard-fought, with Democrats needing to flip only three Republican-held seats to capture a majority in the chamber.
By contrast, Democrats have an extremely narrow path to winning a Senate majority in November, which would require them to successfully defend all their current seats – even in competitive states where incumbents are retiring – and flipping Republican seats in four more states. A competitive race in Texas would increase their options.
TEXAS SENATE RACE EXPOSES TENSIONS IN BOTH PARTIES
Seeking to protect the seat, Cornyn’s allies have poured some $69 million into the race, compared with just $4 million backing Paxton, according to the advertisement-tracking firm AdImpact.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn said in a speech to supporters Tuesday night. “There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country.”
Paxton, speaking to his own supporters, said they had sent a message to Washington.
“Texas is not for sale,” Paxton said. “You listened to what John Cornyn was selling, and you weren’t buying it.”
Both Cornyn and Paxton have tried to tie themselves as closely to Trump as possible, including backing the military strikes in Iran. The president has not made a formal endorsement, which could easily swing the race.
Democrats have long harbored hopes of turning Texas blue, but the party has not won a statewide race since 1994. Nevertheless, party leaders argue Paxton – who has survived an impeachment by Republican lawmakers, a securities fraud indictment and a messy divorce – could prove vulnerable in November.
Talarico’s victory was powered in part by a strong performance in majority-Hispanic counties, including in the San Antonio suburbs of Bexar County as well as in border counties such as Hidalgo County, which Trump in 2024 became the first Republican presidential candidate to win in five decades.
Texas’ sizable population of Hispanic voters is likely to be courted heavily by both parties, after they swung hard toward Trump in 2024. Polls suggest Republicans may struggle to retain those gains this year amid Trump’s sagging popularity.
NEW MAPS SCRAMBLE RACES
Tuesday’s contests also marked the first time that new congressional maps were used in Texas and North Carolina, after Republican lawmakers last year redrew the states’ U.S. House district lines at Trump’s behest to try to gain more Republican seats, igniting a nationwide redistricting fight.
The new Texas map already prompted two Democratic incumbents whose districts were eliminated to retire. In the Houston area, two sitting Democratic congress members, Al Green and Christian Menefee, were facing off in a rare incumbent-versus-incumbent contest after the new map dismantled Green’s previous seat.
Another Democratic incumbent, Julie Johnson, was trailing former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, though the race seemed likely to go to a runoff.
Republican U.S. Representative Tony Gonzales appeared headed for a runoff against a conservative YouTuber, Brandon Herrera, following allegations that he had a relationship with a female staffer who later died by suicide. He has denied wrongdoing but has faced bipartisan calls to resign.
Republican U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, also lost to a hard-right challenger, state Representative Steve Toth.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Jason Lange, Costas Pitas, Kanishka Singh and Nolan D. McCaskill; editing by Paul Thomasch and Deepa Babington)
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