By Francesco Guarascio
HANOI, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The Trump administration plans to replace the U.S. ambassador to Vietnam with a nominee set on addressing “imbalanced” trade relations, as Hanoi’s goods trade surplus with Washington surpassed China’s in recent quarters while it was locked in unresolved tariff negotiations with Washington.
On Sunday, current ambassador Marc Knapper will end his tenure after being abruptly recalled before Christmas alongside several other career diplomats. His designated successor, career diplomat Jennifer Wicks McNamara, who is awaiting U.S. Senate confirmation after being nominated in October, has said the trade relationship needs rectifying.
The Southeast Asian nation reported record exports to the United States last year despite 20% U.S. tariffs since August, generating a surplus of nearly $134 billion, according to Vietnamese government data, which are more conservative than U.S. figures.
“The current trade relationship is imbalanced,” Wicks told U.S. lawmakers in December, noting that if confirmed she would promote equitable access for U.S. goods and services to Vietnam and encourage Vietnamese investment in the United States.
The U.S. Supreme Court may rule on the legality of the White House’s tariffs as soon as this week, but analysts said Vietnam will likely face U.S. pressure regardless of the ruling.
“The administration still has multiple avenues to re-escalate tariff rates,” said Adam Samdin, an economist at Oxford Economics. The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam leaves Hanoi “vulnerable,” he said.
Knapper was an advocate for closer ties with Vietnam and frequently expressed optimism about the outcome of trade talks with Hanoi.
Wicks, a State Department official for over two decades, also aims to deepen security cooperation with Vietnam, an objective long emphasised by Knapper.
VIETNAM OVERTAKES CHINA
The latest seasonally adjusted U.S. data shows Vietnam’s January to October trade surplus in goods reached $144.2 billion, already surpassing its full-year 2024 record.
Crucially, Vietnam’s goods trade surplus was higher than China’s in the second and third quarters of 2025, the latest available U.S. data shows. Among U.S. partners, only Mexico had a larger gap in those quarters.
Vietnam’s rise is closely linked to a sharp decline in China’s trade with the United States: Beijing’s goods trade surplus nearly halved to $41.4 billion in the third quarter from the same quarter in 2024, whereas Vietnam’s rose by about 43% in the same period to $44.8 billion, according to seasonally adjusted U.S. data.
China’s trade surplus with the U.S. still remains higher than Vietnam’s for the full January-October period.
Meanwhile, China’s exports to Vietnam boomed last year, Vietnamese data show.
The Trump administration has repeatedly accused Vietnam of being a waypoint for Chinese goods directed to the United States, which face lower duties when carrying a “Made in Vietnam” label.
Illegally transshipped goods are subject to U.S. tariffs of 40%, but the White House has not yet indicated its criteria to determine what can be considered as illegal transshipment.
“Given Washington’s ongoing scrutiny of illegal transshipment, pressure on transshipment issues is likely to remain high, and likely intensify, with the new U.S. ambassador,” said Phan Xuan Dung, a researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
(Reporting by Francesco GuarascioEditing by Shri Navaratnam)
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