ANN ARBOR (WKZO AM/FM) — Thanksgiving is coming up this week, and if you are looking around for something to be thankful for it may be the economy.
West Michigan’s economic outlook continues to show slow positive growth. Kalamazoo Industrial Economist Brian Long says this is about as good as it’s going to get in this economic cycle.
Economist Gabrial Ehrlich, who is on a team of University of Michigan economists who have just released their forecast for the next two years says barring any major national policy errors or external shocks, we should continue to see this slow growth economy for the next two years.
They call this Michigan’s “new normal”.
Ehrlich says combine that with low inflation, high employment, and a state economy that continues to diversify and he sees that as a winning combination.
He says the recovery is “maturing” and while they concede that salaries have not kept pace with the growth we have seen, it’s so much better than it was.
He says job growth is slowing because most plants are at capacity, employers can’t find the skilled tradesmen they need, and auto sales are flattening.
They project the economy will create about 41,000 new jobs this year and be just slightly lower than that figure next year, but growth will continue.
AAA of Michigan says the jobs picture, high consumer confidence and steady salaries are the reason why they anticipate a record number of people will be traveling this Thanksgiving weekend, and not all of them are headed home for turkey and pumpkin pie.
They say they are seeing a large number jumping on airplanes and heading for the Disney Resorts, Las Vegas and Hawaii. That doesn’t happen unless there is the disposable income to finance it all.
