ORLANDO, Florida, March 9 (Reuters) – Stocks in Asia and Europe tumbled on Monday as the Iran war entered its second week and oil prices surged as much as 30% above $100 a barrel. But Wall Street rallied and oil later sank after President Donald Trump indicated the war may soon be over.
In my column today I put Wall Street’s resilience under the microscope. As selling snowballs across other equity markets, why has the global avalanche not yet engulfed U.S. stocks? Are there reasonable explanations, or is complacency setting in?
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
Today’s Key Market Moves
Today’s Talking Points
* Central bank paralysis
There can be no doubt now – the eye-watering surge in oil prices since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint attack on Iran on February 28 has put central banks in an unenviable bind. Price pressures are clearly intensifying, but the impact of $100 a barrel oil on economic activity will be harsh.
Do they hike rates to nip inflation in the bud, or adopt a more dovish stance in the face of rising unemployment and potential recession? In the U.S., the labor market was already creaking, household savings are run down, and now gas prices are soaring. Higher borrowing costs will hurt the average consumer. But so will higher inflation.
* Pre-war price pressures
Even before the Middle East crisis erupted, price pressures around the world were bubbling up. Figures on Monday showed that consumer inflation in China jumped in February to the highest in three years, Mexico’s inflation rose above the central bank’s target, and real wages in Japan rose for the first time in 13 months.
With oil smashing through $100 a barrel – and now up considerably on the same period last year – inflation signals are only pointing one way. U.S. PCE inflation figures for February due out later this week are expected to follow a similar path, rising further above 3%.
* To tap or not to tap?
Countries around the world are suddenly scrambling for ways to cushion the economic blow of $100 oil. Releasing emergency oil reserves is an obvious option, but it seems like it’s not going to be exercised just yet. G7 countries discussed it on Monday but say there’s no immediate supply shortfall. Not yet, anyway.
Elsewhere, China has capped fuel prices, South Korea is considering a similar move for the first time in 30 years, and Japan is preparing for a possible release of crude and could draw down cash reserves set aside for emergency spending. Authorities will be reluctant to raise interest rates, so they may need to get inventive.
What could move markets tomorrow?
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(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
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