TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan’s trade-reliant economy likely grew at a quicker pace in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the prior three months, driven by strong tech demand, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday, though U.S. tariffs continue to cloud the outlook.
Taiwan’s gross domestic product is expected to have grown 5.7% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, the poll of 25 economists showed, up from 5.48% in the first quarter.
The economists’ forecast for preliminary GDP data, which is due on Thursday, varied widely from an expansion of just 4.1% to as much as 8%.
Taiwan’s trade-driven economy could be substantially affected this year if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through with his tariff policy. Taiwan was due to get a 32% tariff, until Trump paused the whole plan for 90 days in April.
Taiwan’s tariff talks with the United States have continued, with no outcome yet.
“Prospects for developing Asia and the Pacific could be dented further by an escalation of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions,” the Asian Development Bank said in a report published last week.
“Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and raise energy prices,” it added.
Taiwan is a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Nvidia, and home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, whose semiconductors are widely used for artificial intelligence applications.
TSMC this month reported a record, forecast-beating quarterly profit, but warned that future income might be hit by U.S. tariffs, though perhaps not until the fourth quarter.
China’s economy slowed less than expected in the second quarter in a show of resilience against U.S. tariffs.
In May, the Taiwan government’s statistics bureau trimmed its full-year 2025 economic growth outlook to 3.1% from a previous 3.14%, citing tariff concerns.
Taiwan’s preliminary GDP data will be released in a statement with limited commentary. More detailed and revised figures, including forward-looking forecasts, will follow a few weeks later.
(Poll compiled by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan and Carol Lee; Reporting by Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)
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