SANTIAGO (Reuters) – Fifteen years ago on February 27, a devastating 8.8 magnitude quake struck southern Chile off the coast of Concepcion, shaking the ground for four minutes and unleashing a tsunami that left 550 dead.
It was the deadliest natural disaster in the country since the 1960 9.5 magnitude quake, the strongest ever recorded in the world. Now scientists are expecting a big earthquake in the country’s mineral-rich north.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and second-largest lithium producer. The country’s largest copper mines are located in the north as well as all of its lithium production.
“Every 10 years there’s a big event,” said Felipe Leyton, a seismologist at the University of Chile, adding that there are areas of the country that build up a lot of geological stress through fault lines.
“This lets you see the potential for a big earthquake that lets us say in the short term, in seismic and geological terms, we’re expecting a big earthquake in the northern part of the country.”
Chile, a long and skinny country spanning 4,300 km (2,672 miles) in length with an average width of 180 km (112 miles), has the Andes mountain range running all along its western border.
Chile is located on the seismically active Ring of Fire that surrounds the Pacific Ocean. Its mountains and earthquakes are the product of the Nazca and South American tectonic plates crashing into each other all along the length of Chile.
Dr. Mohama Ayaz, a geologist and geospatial engineer at the University of Santiago of Chile, says GPS technology lets scientists monitor plate movement for any variation and anticipate possible seismic events.
“We obviously can’t say exactly when, but we can anticipate them,” Ayaz said. “Earthquakes are the result of built-up stress and that stress depends on the last time since the last seismic event.”
Ayaz noted there has not been a large release in the north of the country like there was in the southern part of the country in 2010.
“So what we’re expecting in the short term, is an earthquake in the north, we can’t say when, but we can wait for it,” Ayaz said.
(Reporting by Rodrigo Gutierrez; Writing by Alexander Villegas; Editing by Sandra Maler)
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