By Helen Coster
(Reuters) – Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is expected to dominate the nominating contests taking place coast-to-coast on Super Tuesday, the biggest day of primaries in the 2024 presidential election cycle.
Fifteen states will hold Republican contests, including the two most populous, California and Texas. More than a third of delegates – 865 of 2,429 – will be up for grabs; at least 1,215 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
About a third of Democratic delegates will also be awarded in primaries across the country on Tuesday, but President Joe Biden does not face a serious challenge for his party’s nomination.
Here is a quick look at what is happening on the ground in the Republican fight between Trump and his last remaining rival for the nomination, Nikki Haley:
VIRGINIA
Republican delegate count: 48
The polls close at 7 p.m. EST (0000 GMT).
Virginia is an open primary state that allows registered voters to participate in either primary, which could boost Haley’s results given her relative strength with independent voters compared to Trump. Trump is leading Haley by nearly 49 percentage points, according to a polling average by FiveThirtyEight. In the 2020 general election, Biden won the state by roughly 10 percentage points.
VERMONT
Republican delegate count: 17
The polls close at 7 p.m. EST (0000 GMT).
In liberal Vermont, the Republican Party is more moderate than in other states. Its Republican governor, Phil Scott, has endorsed Haley, who could benefit from independents voting in the state’s open primary. A Feb. 19 University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll has Trump beating Haley by 30 percentage points. Biden won Vermont by over 35 percentage points in 2020.
NORTH CAROLINA
Republican delegate count: 74
The polls close at 7:30 p.m. EST (0030 GMT Wednesday).
North Carolina will be watched closely for signs of each candidate’s strength in one of the potential battleground states that could decide the general election. Trump won the state in the 2020 election against Biden by just over a single percentage point. The state allows voters who are unaffiliated with a party to participate in any primary they choose, which could lift Haley’s performance.
TEXAS
Republican delegate count: 161
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Opinion polls show Trump to be an overwhelming favorite in Texas’ primary contest, and beating Biden by four percentage points in November. With immigration a major ballot issue, Trump and Biden appeared in dueling visits to the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas on Feb. 29.
MASSACHUSETTS
Republican delegate count: 40
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Trump lost Massachusetts, which has a small Republican Party, by two-to-one margins in the last two general elections. But he is expected to easily win the primary against Haley. Unaffiliated voters, who comprise 3.1 million of the state’s 4.9 million registered voters, can choose to vote in any primary on Tuesday.
TENNESSEE
Republican delegate count: 58
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Polls show Trump is likely to get an easy win over Haley in Tennessee, a state he also won in the 2016 and 2020 general elections.
ALABAMA
Republican delegate count: 50
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Trump has a huge lead over Haley in polls in Alabama, a state he also easily won in the 2020 general election. The state was thrust to the center of the U.S. reproductive rights debate after its high court ruled on Feb. 16 that frozen embryos created by in vitro fertilization treatments should be considered children, leaving Republicans scrambling to contain the public backlash.
OKLAHOMA
Republican delegate count: 43
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Oklahoma is one of two states that saw every county vote for Trump in 2020. The other was West Virginia. A Feb. 4 Morning Consult poll shows Trump beating Haley by 77 percentage points in Oklahoma’s primary contest.
MAINE
Republican delegate count: 20
The polls close at 8 p.m. EST (0100 GMT Wednesday).
Trump led Haley by 58 percentage points in Maine according to a Feb. 19 poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll. Maine, one of the country’s least racially diverse states, has a semi-open primary that allows unenrolled or independent voters to participate in either the Democratic or Republican contests without having to sign up with the party. Biden beat Trump in Maine by roughly nine percentage points in 2020.
ARKANSAS
Republican delegate count: 40
The polls close at 8:30 p.m. EST (0130 GMT Wednesday).
Trump beat Biden in Arkansas by roughly 27 percentage points in 2020 and is expected to have an even greater lead this year, according to an Oct. 4 Emerson College poll. There was no public polling for the Trump versus Haley matchup ahead of the primary.
MINNESOTA
Republican delegate count: 39
The polls close at 9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT Wednesday).
Opinion polls show Trump has overwhelming support among Republicans in Minnesota, where Biden is polling slightly ahead of Trump in the general election. Minnesota three-term Democratic congressman Dean Phillips will be on the ballot as a long-shot primary challenger to Biden.
COLORADO
Republican delegate count: 37
The polls close at 9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT).
Trump remains on the Colorado primary ballot after the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday blocked states from disqualifying candidates for federal office under a constitutional provision involving insurrection, reversing a state decision that would have excluded him from the ballot. There wasn’t public polling for the Trump versus Haley matchup ahead of the primary.
UTAH
Republican delegate count: 40
The polls close at 10 p.m. EST (0300 GMT Wednesday).
This year, Utah’s Republican Party opted to hold a caucus and presidential preference poll to determine the party’s nominee instead of a state-funded primary. In a state where Trump beat Biden by roughly 20 percentage points in 2020, a January poll from Dan Jones & Associates shows him beating Haley by 27 percentage points on Super Tuesday.
CALIFORNIA
Republican delegate count: 169
The polls close at 11 p.m. EST (0400 GMT Wednesday).
According to Republican Party rules in California, a candidate who wins more than half of primary votes receives all of the state’s 169 delegates. Trump may be on track to do so, with a FiveThirtyEight average of polls showing him ahead of Haley by nearly 55 percentage points. If neither candidate wins over 50% of the votes, delegates will be awarded proportionately based on the statewide vote. In the general election, Biden is expected to easily win the state.
ALASKA:
Republican delegate count: 29
The polls close at 12 a.m. EST Wednesday (8 p.m. AKST Tuesday/ 5 a.m. GMT Wednesday).
Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. Trump won by 10 percentage points in the 2020 general election, the smallest Republican margin since 1992. There wasn’t public polling for the Trump versus Haley matchup ahead of the primary.
(Reporting by Helen Coster; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Deepa Babington)
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