LONDON (Reuters) – Helped by a faster-than-expected economic recovery and borrowing that has undershot forecasts, Britain’s government will slash its planned bond sales for the current financial year, a Reuters poll of primary dealers showed ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The median forecast from 12 primary dealers showed the Debt Management Office will plan to sell 218.8 billion pounds ($300.89 billion) of gilts in 2021/22, a 33.8 billion-pound reduction from its existing remit.
Primary dealers, known in Britain as gilt-edged market makers, are banks hired by the government to help create a liquid market for its debt.
The government has already sold 153.1 billion pounds of bonds in the current financial year, which began in April.
It sold a record 485.8 billion pounds of gilts in the 2020/21 financial year to fund the economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The rebound in the world’s fifth-biggest economy means borrowing this financial year is likely to be around 40 billion pounds ($55 billion) below official forecasts.
After hitting its highest since World War Two, at 15% of gross domestic product, in the year to March, the budget deficit in the current year looks to come in far lower than originally forecast.
The poll showed government borrowing for 2021/22 looks set to come in at around 190 billion pounds – far less than the 233.9 billion pounds forecast in March by the Office for Budget Responsibility and compared with 247 billion in the 2020/21 financial year.
MEDIAN 190.0 218.8
MEAN 189.9 218.5
MAX 211.7 232.6
MIN 160.0 200.0
COUNT 13 12
PSNB-ex Gilt
(bln issuance
stg) (bln stg)
Barclays 182.0 212.6
BNP Paribas 211.7 230.8
Citi 173.0 207.6
Deutsche Bank 188.9 212.5
HSBC 194.8 220.6
JPMorgan 160.0
Lloyds 185.9 219.6
Merrill Lynch 190.0 227.6
Morgan Stanley 194.0 230.0
NatWest 190.0 210.0
Nomura 185.0 200.0
RBC 209.0 232.6
Santander 199.0 218.0
($1 = 0.7272 pounds)
(Reporting by Andy Bruce; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
