By Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugaboopathy
(Reuters) – Analysts are upgrading Asian companies’ forward 12-month earnings estimates at a higher pace than for the U.S- and European firms, Refinitiv data showed, on expectations that Asia’s faster recovery from the COVID-19 crisis would bolster earnings.
Analysts have lifted Asia companies’ forward 12-month EPS estimates by 1.4% in the past month, compared with U.S. firms’ 0.4% increase, meanwhile, they cut European firms estimates by about 1%.
Recent economic data showed Asian companies, led by China, are making a faster economic progress after coming out of their lockdowns, registering higher factory output and export growth.
China’s exports extended strong gains in September, as its firms rushed to grab higher market share with their overseas rivals still grappling with reduced manufacturing capacity.
For a graphic on Breakdown by country for estimates changes in last 30 days:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dgkvljmzjvb/Breakdown%20by%20country%20for%20estimates%20changes%20in%20last%2030%20days.jpg
For a graphic on Change in Asian companies profit estimates this year:
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South Korean exports also rose for the first time in seven months in September.
Refinitiv data showed South Korea and Malaysian companies saw earnings upgrades of over 4% in the past month, the highest in the region.
“With the highest leverage to emerging market growth at a time when global trade is picking up, Korean earnings momentum is just inflecting upwards,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies.
Australian, Taiwanese and Chinese firms also saw earnings upgrades of up to 3% last month.
India, which has the second highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world, also witnessed corporate earnings upgrades over the past month.
For a graphic on Breakdown by sector for estimates changes in last 30 days:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/qmyvmjmwbpr/Breakdown%20by%20sector%20for%20estimates%20changes%20in%20last%2030%20days.jpg
For a graphic on Breakdown by sector for estimates changes this year:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/nmovaymzdva/Breakdown%20by%20sector%20for%20estimates%20changes%20this%20year.jpg
“Along with a recent moderation in new COVID-19 cases, India’s PMI surged to the highest level in over eight years. Together with strong auto sales, this could help earnings revisions improve,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.
Paul Sandhu, head of multi-asset quant solutions at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said Asia’s better handling of COVID-19 compared with developed markets could also bolster the region’ stocks in coming months.
“Asia will be supported by a risk on trade both from a equity profits perspective but also from currency profits,” he said.
(Reporting by Gaurav Dogra and Patturaja Murugbaoopathy in Bengaluru; editing by Louise Heavens)
